This is the second post in our four-part series on Reece James, a hometown talent of Chelsea FC who joined the club at age six and now leads the senior team.
At a glance
- Analyze Reece James' impact at Chelsea
- Compare match statistics of games when Reece played versus when he didn't
- Assess the team's performance against top opponents
The Best Years
Reece made his senior debut for Chelsea FC in 2019 under manager Frank Lampard. His consistent, high-quality performances earned him a long-term contract in 2020, solidifying his role at the club. Over the next couple of years, he established himself as a first-team regular, featured in over 85 games and helping Chelsea win the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Super Cup, and FIFA Club World Cup trophies. Since then, Reece has been regarded as a long-term asset and the team’s first-choice right-back, or what England Football call a "powerful and pacy right-back."
His Impact Over a Season
Reece James’s impact at Chelsea becomes clearer when we examine two key performance metrics from the 2020–21 and 2021–22 seasons: Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goals Allowed (xGA).
Together, xG and xGA provide a more accurate, data-driven view of how well a team is performing—both in attack and defense—and are especially useful for comparing the influence of individual players like Reece James on overall team effectiveness.
Analyzing Chelsea’s data from the 2020–21 and 2021–22 seasons, we can infer that the team was expected to score more goals when Reece James was in the lineup. Across those two seasons, the team’s median Expected Goals (xG) were 1.6 with Reece on the pitch, compared to 1.3 without him. This +0.3 difference represents a meaningful shift in the team's goal-scoring probability and is especially important in low-scoring games.
Moreover, the median Expected Goals Allowed (xGA) also shifts favorably—from 0.7 to 0.6—with Reece in the team. While this may not seem as dramatic an improvement as in the attacking metrics, an xGA below 1 is already strong, and reducing it further by 10% is a notable achievement.
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When projected over the 38 matches of the English Premier League season, a +0.3 xG increase equates to approximately 11.4 additional goals, and a -0.1 xGA decrease translates to about 4 fewer goals conceded. In total, this results in an improved goal difference (goals scored minus goals conceded) of +15.4.
Goal difference is generally correlated with league performance—the more a team scores and concedes less, the higher their goal difference and, typically, their league position. For example, in the 2024–25 season, Nottingham Forest finished 7th with a goal difference of +12, while Manchester City finished 3rd with +28—a difference of 16. Thus, a shift of +15.4 in goal difference can distinguish a mid-table team from one competing for a top-four finish. It is a significant bump in the team's performance and reinforces just how valuable Reece James is to Chelsea.
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His Impact Against Top Teams
Big players turn up in big games. Analyzing Chelsea’s performance against the top four teams in the Premier League (Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester United) reveals a clear distinction between games played with Reece and those without him.
During the 2020 to 2022 period, Chelsea earned 1.17 Points per Game against the top four when Reece played, compared to just 0.25 Points per Game when he didn’t. This indicates that Chelsea was more likely to at least secure a draw against top contenders with Reece in the lineup. The 0.92-point gap per game clearly demonstrates that Chelsea was significantly more dominant when Reece played—almost 7 additional points per season against top teams—which can certainly make or break Chelsea’s league season.
Reece not only helps in attaining more points for Chelsea but also limits the top contenders from getting points, leading to an overall improvement in the club’s position in the league table.
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Reece James has the potential to significantly alter Chelsea’s season when he is regularly involved in matches. As the analysis shows, his attacking ability helps the team generate more goal-scoring opportunities, while his defensive presence reduces the chances of conceding. He also performs well against top opponents, often delivering in high-stakes games. One could argue that Reece’s fitness and consistent inclusion in the starting lineup may be a decisive factor in determining Chelsea’s chances of winning the Premier League in the years ahead.
In upcoming editions, we will compare Reece to the world's top footballers who share a similar playing style and position on the pitch. We will also use data to highlight how recent injury struggles have hindered Reece from reaching his full potential. Finally, we will analyze and predict how Reece's participation in games can help propel Chelsea toward winning the Premier League in the coming years.
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