Within the Numbers Series # 16
From Kings to Ghosts
There was a time when Zandvoort looked like one of Mercedes’ strongest circuits. In the track’s first years back on the Formula 1 calendar, Mercedes consistently found itself fighting at the front. Then, almost overnight, everything changed.
In 2023, Mercedes’ average Drive Score at Zandvoort collapsed to -3.5, the lowest of any constructor that year. The seasons since have brought signs of recovery, but the team has yet to rediscover the form that once made it so dangerous here.
Now Mercedes returns to the Netherlands in an entirely different position. After years of struggles at a circuit it once thrived at, the team enters Zandvoort with renewed expectations and a chance to finally leave its recent history behind. In 2026, that leaves one simple question: can Mercedes finally break the Zandvoort curse?
Mercedes is Back Near the Top
This weekend’s Drive Score predictions point to Max Verstappen as the driver to beat at his home Grand Prix. The Dutch driver leads the field with a Drive Score of 30, followed by a tightly packed group of contenders that includes Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc, Kimi Antonelli, Lewis Hamilton, Isack Hadjar and George Russell.
For Mercedes, Antonelli enters the weekend ranked fourth, while Russell sits seventh. However, those predictions come against the backdrop of an excellent first half of the season for the team. Mercedes leads the Constructors’ Championship, Antonelli sits atop the Drivers’ standings and Russell is third. Given that form, we expect both Mercedes drivers to outperform their current Drive Score rankings and emerge as two of Verstappen’s biggest threats at Zandvoort.
The Grid's Dark Horse: Pierre Gasly
While the model has Pierre Gasly much further down the rankings with a predicted Drive Score of just 3, his history at Zandvoort offers a reason not to count him out entirely. In 2023, Gasly climbed from P12 on the grid to P3, producing a Drive Score of 58 – one of the standout performances at the circuit in recent years. The model may not favour him this weekend, but that performance has already shown just how high his ceiling at Zandvoort can be.
Why 2026 Could Be Different
Mercedes: The Fall at Zandvoort
Mercedes’ complicated relationship with Zandvoort began very differently from where it stands today. The team averaged a Drive Score of 33 in 2021 before climbing to 43.5 in 2022, its best performance at the circuit. George Russell led the way that year finishing P2 and recording a Drive Score of 63, the highest individual score in the Zandvoort dataset.
Just one year later, Mercedes went from the top of the rankings to the very bottom. The team's average Drive Score fell to -3.5 in 2023, the lowest of any constructor, while Russell went from starting P3 to finishing P17 and recorded a -28 Drive Score. For Russell alone, that represented a remarkable 91-point swing from his performance at the same circuit just one year earlier.
The recovery since has been gradual. Mercedes improved to an average Drive Score of 3.5 in 2024 and 11.0 in 2025, but neither came close to the heights of 2021 and 2022. Now, with Mercedes back at the front of the championship fight, the question is whether the team’s 2026 form can finally translate to success at Zandvoort.
Kimi Antonelli: One Bad Weekend or an Outlier?
If Mercedes is going to turn the page at Zandvoort, its championship leader may be its best chance to do it. Kimi Antonelli has built his lead in the Drivers’ Championship on remarkable consistency, recording Drive Scores of 36, 50, 50, 50, 43, 50 and 50 across his scoring races leading into Silverstone.
Then came an extreme outlier. Antonelli recorded a -51 Drive Score at Silverstone, a dramatic departure from everything he had produced to that point in the season. But rather than beginning a downward trend, the result was immediately followed by scores of 50 in Belgium and 51 in Hungary, bringing Antonelli straight back to the level he had maintained for much of 2026.
That response could be particularly significant heading into Zandvoort. Antonelli has already shown this season that one disastrous result doesn't have to define what comes next. Now, at a circuit where Mercedes is trying to leave its own struggles behind, its championship leader has an opportunity to help the team do the same.
Time to Settle the Score
On paper, 2026 looks like Mercedes’ best opportunity in years to finally put its Zandvoort struggles behind it. Mercedes leads the Constructors’ Championship, Antonelli sits atop the Drivers’ standings and Russell sits third, giving the team plenty of reason to believe its season-long form can outweigh a more cautious Drive Score prediction this weekend.
Standing in their way is Max Verstappen. The Dutch driver enters his home Grand Prix at the top of the Drive Score predictions, making him the clear benchmark for Mercedes to overcome. If the team is going to complete its Zandvoort redemption, it will have to find a way past the driver the model expects to set the standard this weekend.
The numbers suggest Mercedes is ready for its reckoning, but Zandvoort has defied its expectations before. Now there’s only one question left: will Mercedes finally break the curse, or will Zandvoort win again?
