Within the Numbers Series #18
Kimi's Monza Miracle
Kimi Antonelli delivered arguably the most impressive victory of the season at Monza, climbing from 19th on the grid to win his home race. A grid penalty for using additional power unit elements left him with almost the entire field ahead of him, but it did little to slow him down.
Antonelli steadily worked his way through the field and put himself in contention as the race entered its final stages. He completed the comeback by taking the lead in the final few laps, turning what could have been a difficult weekend into an unforgettable victory in front of the Italian crowd.
Now, only one week after his remarkable performance at Monza, Antonelli heads to Spain as the clear favourite in the latest Drive Score prediction. With seven victories already this season and a growing lead in the Drivers’ Championship, the question is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: can anyone stop Kimi?
A Drive Score in a Class of Its Own
Moving from P19 to P1 meant Antonelli gained 18 positions at Monza, more than enough to separate the performance from a conventional victory from pole. The result produced a Drive Score of 101, the highest score recorded by any driver this season.
It was also a completely different type of win from most of Antonelli’s previous victories. Instead of controlling the race from the front, he had to recover from a grid penalty, work his way through traffic and remain within reach of the leaders until the opportunity to take the lead arrived.
Winning from 19th would have been remarkable anywhere. Doing it at Monza, in front of his home crowd, made the result even more memorable.
Seven Wins and Counting
Monza may have produced Antonelli’s most impressive result yet, but it was hardly an isolated success. The Mercedes driver has now won seven races in 2026 and has shown that he can win from almost anywhere on the grid.
Five of those victories came from pole in China, Japan, Miami, Monaco and Belgium. But he has also found different routes to the top step, winning in Canada after starting P2 before completing his remarkable charge from P19 at Monza.
Whether he begins at the front or has to fight his way through the field, Antonelli keeps finding a way to win. So, how much has that success separated him from the rest of the field in Spain’s Drive Score prediction?
A Clear Advantage at the Top
The latest Drive Score prediction makes Antonelli the clear favourite for this weekend’s Spanish Grand Prix.
Antonelli leads the prediction with a Drive Score of 36, placing him 15 points ahead of both Lando Norris and George Russell, who are tied for second at 21.
It is a considerable gap between the top three and another clear indication of how highly the model rates Antonelli’s current form. Mercedes also has two drivers inside the top three, but even Russell’s prediction falls well short of his teammate’s. Norris remains one of the most likely challengers, but the numbers suggest Antonelli enters Spain in a class of his own.
Spain's Only Negative Prediction
Pierre Gasly sits at the opposite end of the prediction. His pole position at Monza was an impressive moment for a midfield team, and finishing P7 was still a respectable result. However, losing six positions during the race contributed to a Monza Drive Score of -32.
That result has carried into his outlook for Spain, where Gasly is predicted to score -4, the only negative Drive Score on the grid. Rather than treating his Monza pole as the beginning of a new level of performance, the model sees it as a possible one-off peak and expects a much more difficult weekend in Spain.
Looking Ahead to Spain
Everything entering the Spanish Grand Prix points back to Antonelli. He arrives after gaining 18 positions to win his home race, owns the highest single-race Drive Score of the season and has already collected seven victories in 2026. The latest prediction now places him 15 points clear of his closest competitors.
Norris and Russell give him credible competition, but both will need to overcome the largest gap at the top that we've seen this season. Another Antonelli victory would strengthen his growing Drivers’ Championship lead and make the challenge facing the rest of the grid even more difficult.
Spain could be the weekend Antonelli turns an impressive championship lead into one that begins to feel out of reach.
