Within the Numbers Series # 20
A Familiar Opportunity for Verstappen
Baku rarely guarantees anything, but no team has built a stronger recent record here than Red Bull. The team has won four of the last five Azerbaijan Grands Prix, including three straight victories from 2021 to 2023. After a rare off-weekend in 2024, Max Verstappen put Red Bull back on top last season and returns to Baku as the defending winner.
But repeating that success won't be simple. Verstappen has already retired from four races during an inconsistent 2026 season, while the latest Drive Score prediction places him third behind Mercedes teammates Kimi Antonelli and George Russell.
Baku has produced dominance, disaster and a Red Bull comeback over the last five years, which by this circuit’s standards is practically a normal relationship. Now Verstappen returns to find out whether Red Bull still has the advantage, or if Mercedes is ready to take ownership of yet another circuit this season.
Red Bull’s Three-Year Sweep
Red Bull’s recent Baku dominance began with Sergio Pérez in 2021. Starting from P6, Pérez worked his way to the front and delivered the first of three consecutive Azerbaijan Grand Prix victories for the team.
Verstappen kept the streak alive in 2022 before Pérez returned to the top step in 2023, apparently Red Bull was willing to share, just as long as it was between their two drivers.
The results were just as convincing through the lens of Drive Score. Red Bull averaged 44 in 2021 before rising to 47 in both 2022 and 2023. For three straight years, different circumstances produced the same result: a Red Bull driver leaving Baku with the trophy.
By 2024, another Red Bull victory almost felt expected, but Baku had other plans.
The Streak Comes to an End
After three straight victories, Red Bull’s grip on Baku disappeared almost overnight in 2024. The team’s average Drive Score fell from 47 the year before to -0.5, its only negative team score at this circuit. Verstappen finished P5, bringing Red Bull’s winning streak to an abrupt end after three seasons of making Baku look unusually straightforward for the team.
That result was a reminder of how quickly things can change on a street circuit like Baku. A track that had consistently brought out Red Bull’s best, had suddenly produced one of its weakest weekends.
The question was whether 2024 represented the end of Red Bull’s Baku advantage or simply an outlier of a weekend, and Verstappen provided a fairly convincing answer the following year.
Max Puts Red Bull Back on Top
Verstappen didn't leave much room for doubt in 2025. One year after Red Bull’s winning streak ended, he returned to Baku and put the team straight back on top.
The victory helped Red Bull rebound to an average Drive Score of 33 and showed that its difficult 2024 weekend had not completely erased the team’s advantage at this circuit, and normal service had seemingly resumed.
Unfortunately for Red Bull, “normal” has been difficult to define this season. Verstappen has already retired from four races in 2026, with his weekends ending early in China, Monaco, Great Britain and the Netherlands.
That inconsistency makes him much harder to predict than the defending Baku winner normally would be. He has already shown that he can still win here, but first he needs to make it to the finish, which has become a slightly more important detail than Red Bull would probably like to admit.
So, how much confidence does Drive Score have in Verstappen heading into this year’s race?
The Mercedes Roadblock
Drive Score expects Verstappen to contend in Baku, but it doesn't have the defending winner at the top of the prediction. Instead, Kimi Antonelli leads this weekend’s prediction with a Drive Score of 43, followed by his Mercedes teammate George Russell at 33. Verstappen sits tied for third with 28, leaving him five points behind Russell and 15 behind Antonelli.
The good news for Red Bull is that Max remains comfortably inside the top three. The bad news is that both Mercedes drivers are standing between him and another predicted Baku victory.
Antonelli has been the strongest driver across the majority of this season, while Russell gives Mercedes a legitimate second threat. Verstappen’s recent inconsistency explains some of the gap, but his Baku history makes him difficult to dismiss. Drive Score may favour Mercedes, but Red Bull has already made a habit of winning here when the weekend goes their way.
Looking Ahead to Baku
Red Bull arrives in Azerbaijan with the strongest recent record of any team and the defending race winner behind the wheel. Under normal circumstances, that would make Verstappen the obvious favourite.
The problem is that very little about his 2026 season has been normal. Four retirements for Verstappen have made Red Bull difficult to trust, while Antonelli and Russell give Mercedes the top two spots in this weekend’s Drive Score prediction.
That sets up Baku as a test of two very different arguments. Recent form and the data point toward Mercedes, but the circuit’s history keeps pulling the conversation back to Verstappen and Red Bull.
Another Max victory would give Red Bull five wins across the last six Azerbaijan Grands Prix and confirm that its difficult 2024 weekend was only a temporary interruption. A Mercedes win however, could signal that control of Baku is finally beginning to shift.
