Within the Numbers Series # 21
No Track Record to Fall Back On
This weekend’s Bahrain Grand Prix is going to look a little different from what we’ve become used to in recent seasons. Instead of racing at the Bahrain International Circuit, Formula 1 is returning to Malaysia and the Sepang International Circuit. F1 hasn’t hosted a Grand Prix here since 2017, so this weekend could have a few more surprises than usual in store.
This adjustment leaves most of the grid dealing with varying levels of unfamiliarity, but the biggest question surrounds Kimi Antonelli. The championship leader has never raced at Sepang in Formula 1, meaning there is no previous result, qualifying performance or dramatic late-race comeback for Drive Score to use as evidence.
Kimi’s 2026 season has made him the driver to beat almost everywhere, but this weekend removes one of the model’s usual advantages: track history. Does his dominant form still make him the favorite, or does an unfamiliar circuit finally give the rest of the grid an opportunity to strike?
Eight Wins Built the Case
Kimi may not have any experience at Sepang, but he's given Drive Score plenty of other reasons to trust him. Antonelli has already won eight races this season, building a championship lead and making victory look increasingly more straightforward for him as the season goes by.
While some of those wins have come from pole, others have required him to fight his way through the field. His charge from P19 to P1 at Monza was the most extreme example, but the biggest takeaway is that Kimi continues to find different ways to win. At this stage, it's starting to feel less like a hot streak and more like his default setting.
That level of consistency carries a lot of weight when there's no recent track history available. However, Kimi’s season has not been completely flawless, and one result showed just how quickly things can go in the opposite direction.
The Favorite is Still Human
Kimi’s season has included both the highest and one of the lowest Drive Scores on the grid. Earlier this year in Barcelona, he fell from P3 to P16 and finished with a Drive Score of -28. More recently at Monza, he went in the complete opposite direction, climbing from P19 to P1 and earning a season-high score of 101.
That's a 129-point difference in two races from the same driver, which tells you almost everything you need to know about Kimi’s season. When he is at his best, nobody has been able to touch him. But when things do go wrong, they seem to go very wrong. There hasn't been much interest in meeting somewhere in the middle.
Barcelona showed that Kimi is not completely untouchable, but Monza was a much better reflection of the form that has carried him to eight wins and the top of the driver championship. With no recent Sepang result to work from, our Drive Score metric has to decide which side of that huge swing matters more heading into Malaysia.
Current Form Beats Out Track History
With no recent Sepang history to draw from, this week’s prediction places even more weight on how each driver has performed throughout the 2026 season.
Our Drive Score places Antonelli at the top with a predicted score of 31. Max Verstappen sits seven points behind him at 24, while Kimi’s Mercedes teammate George Russell rounds out the top three with 23.
The gap at the top shows how much confidence Kimi has earned throughout the season. With eight victories and the highest single-race Drive Score of the year, he has built enough of a résumé for the model to trust him even without any previous F1 experience at Sepang. Apparently, eight wins can make up for not knowing your way around the block.
Looking Ahead to Malaysia
Sepang adds a completely different challenge to a season that has already given us plenty of unexpected results. With no recent race history to rely on, every team will be learning as the weekend unfolds, and the drivers who adapt the quickest could have a real advantage.
Our Drive Score metric believes Kimi’s eight wins and season-long form make him the driver most likely to handle that uncertainty. Verstappen and Russell are close enough to keep things interesting, but both will need to overcome a clear gap at the top of the prediction.
Kimi has already shown that he can win from pole, fight through the field and recover when a race looks like it has gotten away from him. Now he gets to prove whether that success can travel to a circuit he has never raced at in Formula 1. Will unfamiliar ground finally slow him down, or will Sepang simply become another pitstop on his way to victory?
