Within the Numbers Series # 27
With Kimi Closing In, Who Will Take Second?
Following yet another strong performance last weekend, Kimi Antonelli heads into the Mexico City Grand Prix with one hand already on the Drivers’ Championship trophy. The second-year Mercedes driver has been in a league of his own this season, and with a commanding 123 point lead over second place, he needs just two more points to officially become the youngest Drivers’ Champion in F1 history. And considering how he's performed so far this season, that shouldn't be too difficult for the young driver. So, while the fight for first place is essentially decided, the battle for second is just starting to heat up.
With just five races remaining in the 2026 season, Antonelli’s Mercedes teammate George Russell currently sits second in the standings with 242 points. But breathing down his neck is none other than seven-time World Champion Lewis Hamilton (arguably eight, but we won’t get into that today), who sits just one point behind with 241. Max Verstappen isn't far back with 236 points, while Charles Leclerc rounds out the four-way battle with 233. That leaves just nine points separating all four drivers, meaning there's still plenty of room for the standings to change before the season comes to an end.
So, with Antonelli looking just about ready to celebrate in Mexico, we're turning our attention to the four drivers fighting for the next best spot. And with some drivers finding their form while others have struggled in recent races, we're introducing something new this week: the Drive Score Stock Market, which might give us a better idea of who's heading in the right direction.
Introducing The Drive Score Stock Market
The Drive Score Stock Market is something new we're using to get a different perspective on drivers' more recent performances, by treating their Drive Scores like stocks. Similar to the real stock market, a driver's stock can rise or fall depending on how they've been performing. To track these changes, we're using each driver's rolling three-race average Drive Score, which allows us to see who's building momentum, who's starting to struggle, and how exactly their form has changed throughout the season.
Looking at the chart below, it's pretty clear that these four drivers have all had quite different seasons up until this point. Max Verstappen has been one of the more consistent performers, maintaining a strong rolling average throughout the second half of the season and currently leading the group with a score of 44.3. Charles Leclerc, meanwhile, has seen his stock climb considerably in recent races, bringing his average up to 35.0.
Lewis Hamilton has also been moving in the right direction, although his recent average of 18.7 still puts him some distance behind Verstappen and Leclerc. But perhaps the most interesting trend belongs to George Russell, whose recent performances have sent his stock in the complete opposite direction.
When we compare each driver's last three races with the three before those, these changes become even more noticeable. Leclerc has been the biggest riser, improving his average Drive Score from 12.3 to 35.0, an increase of 22.7 points. Hamilton has also made a solid improvement, jumping from 8.7 to 18.7, while Verstappen has seen only a slight decline of 3.4 points despite still having the highest average of the four.
Russell, on the other hand, has seen his average drop from 34.7 to just 2.7, a decrease of 32 points. His last three individual Drive Scores have been -1, 3, and 6, compared to 36, 18, and 50 in the three races before that.
So, even though Russell currently holds second place in the driver's championship, his recent Drive Scores suggest he's heading into the final five races with the least momentum of the four drivers. Leclerc and Hamilton are both trending upward, and Verstappen continues to perform at a high level.
Of course, recent form is only part of the equation. With the next race taking place in Mexico City it's also worth taking a look at how these four drivers have performed at this circuit in the past.
The Numbers Behind Mexico
If there's one driver who should be feeling confident heading into Mexico City, it's Max Verstappen. Looking at the historical Drive Scores from the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, the Red Bull driver has been the strongest of the four, and the numbers suggest this could be a great opportunity for him to make up some ground in the championship standings.
Between 2021 and 2025, Verstappen recorded an average Drive Score of 38.4 in Mexico City. His performances in 2021, 2022, and 2023 were particularly impressive, producing Drive Scores of 58, 50, and 58, respectively. Clearly, Max is no stranger to putting together strong performances at this circuit.
Charles Leclerc comes in second with an average Drive Score of 29.9, putting him comfortably ahead of his Ferrari teammate Lewis Hamilton, who sits at 15.0. Considering Leclerc has also been one of the biggest risers in our Drive Score Stock Market recently, his historical performances give us yet another reason to keep an eye on him this weekend.
And then there's George Russell, who probably won't be too excited about these numbers. The Mercedes driver has an average Drive Score of just 10.6 in Mexico City, the lowest of the four. In fact, he's never recorded a Drive Score above 20 at this circuit.
That's not the best news to hear for someone trying to defend second place in the championship, especially considering the struggles we've already seen from Russell in recent races. Meanwhile, Verstappen's strong track history gives him another reason to feel confident, while Leclerc appears to have both recent momentum and past performances working in his favour.
With recent momentum and historical performance now accounted for, let's take a look at what our Drive Score metric is predicting for Mexico City.
Who's the Best Investment in Mexico?
By combining each driver's recent performances, track history, and season median, the model below gives us a better idea of who might be the strongest investment heading into Sunday's race.
At the top of the predictions is Max Verstappen with a projected Drive Score of 30.1, but Charles Leclerc is right on his heels at 29.9. That's a difference of just 0.2 points, making these two practically neck and neck heading into the weekend.
And considering what we've seen from both drivers recently, it's not too surprising. Verstappen has finished on the podium in each of the last six races, including two race wins, while Leclerc seems to be finding his momentum with back-to-back second-place finishes. Throw in their impressive track records in Mexico City, and both are looking like pretty solid investments heading into the weekend.
Further down the predictions, Lewis Hamilton comes in third with a projected Drive Score of 15.0, followed by George Russell at 12.3. While Hamilton has been showing signs of improvement lately, neither driver is expected to match the performances of Verstappen or Leclerc this weekend.
Perhaps the biggest concern is Russell. Despite currently sitting second in the Drivers’ Championship, Russell has the lowest projected Drive Score of the four drivers heading into Mexico City, at just 12.3. With his recent struggles and relatively poor history at the circuit, the model certainly isn't giving us much reason to buy his stock right now.
Of course, these are only predictions, and anything can happen once the lights go out on Sunday. But if we're making investments based on what Drive Score is telling us, Verstappen and Leclerc are looking like the two safest bets heading into Mexico City.
Looking Ahead to Mexico
With Kimi Antonelli looking set to wrap up the Drivers' Championship this weekend, the real excitement might just come from the battle happening behind him. Four drivers, just nine points separating them, and five races left to decide who finishes second.
If we're trusting our Drive Score metric, Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc are looking like the strongest investments heading into Mexico City. Both have been delivering impressive results recently, while Lewis Hamilton is slowly building momentum of his own. George Russell, meanwhile, will be hoping to turn things around before his narrow lead in the standings disappears.
Of course, the stock market can be unpredictable, and Formula 1 isn't much different. One strong weekend could completely change the picture, especially with the standings this close.
So, with the Mexican Grand Prix just around the corner we've got one final question: Who are you buying?
