Within the Numbers Series # 17
Monza’s Leading Man
Charles Leclerc and Monza have a habit of bringing out the best in each other. Four consecutive top-four finishes, two victories and a Drive Score of 70 in 2024 – the highest Monza score of the past two seasons – make a convincing case for putting him at No. 1 again. What makes the prediction less straightforward is the season surrounding it.
Leclerc arrives after what has been an inconsistent 2026 season, while our Drive Score ranks Lando Norris just one point behind him, and Kimi Antonelli only two points back. Monza may be one of Leclerc’s strongest circuits, but this year’s race will reveal whether his history here can outweigh his current form.
A Three-Way Battle at Monza
The Italian Grand Prix's Drive Score predictions are led by a remarkably tight top three. Leclerc enters the weekend with a score of 30, placing him only one point ahead of Lando Norris and two ahead of Kimi Antonelli. A larger gap separates the leaders from Max Verstappen at 23 and Lewis Hamilton at 22, with Oscar Piastri and George Russell completing the top seven.
Leclerc’s position at the top is largely driven by his outstanding history at Monza. He has finished inside the top four in each of his last four appearances, winning in both 2019 and 2024, while his Drive Score of 70 in 2024 remains the highest recorded at Monza over the past two seasons.
However, his 2026 campaign has been less consistent. Leclerc has regularly competed near the front, but several difficult weekends have interrupted that form, and his victory at Silverstone remains his only win of the season. Now he returns to a circuit that has repeatedly brought out his best to try and answer a simple question: Can Leclerc turn his Monza advantage into his second victory of 2026?
Who Stands Between Leclerc and Victory?
Mercedes has arguably been the most consistent team throughout the 2026 season, and Kimi Antonelli’s recent results show why he could be Leclerc’s biggest threat at Monza. Kimi sits just two points behind Leclerc in the Drive Score prediction and arrives with three consecutive podium finishes. He won in Belgium three races ago, finished third in Hungary and then took second behind Norris in the Netherlands. Monza is also Kimi’s home race, giving him the added motivation of competing in front of the Italian crowd. With Mercedes continuing to perform well, and Kimi regularly fighting at the front, another victory certainly feels possible this weekend from the young driver.
Lando Norris will also be difficult to beat. He has the second-highest Drive Score at 29, just one point behind Leclerc, and carries plenty of momentum after winning the past two races. Leclerc may be the favorite on paper, but Kimi’s consistency and Norris’ recent form mean he will have no shortage of competition at Monza.
At the Other End of the Predictions
At the other end of the predictions sits Pierre Gasly, with a projected Drive Score of just 1. Now normally that shouldn't attract much attention, but Gasly has already shown how unpredictable his season can be. His third-place finish in Monaco produced a Drive Score of 57, more than four times his next-best result, making his Monza projection another interesting one to watch at the opposite end of the grid.
Looking Ahead to Monza
With only two Drive Score points separating the top three, the Italian Grand Prix looks set to be one of the closest races of the season. Leclerc returns to a track where he has repeatedly performed at his best, looking for his second victory of 2026. Kimi arrives with three consecutive podiums and the added motivation of racing at home, while Norris heads to Monza after winning the past two races. This weekend will not only put Leclerc’s circuit history up against two of the grid’s most in-form drivers, but showcase whether or not our Drive Score metric was right to make him the favorite this weekend.
