Within the Numbers # 26
As of 10/23/26, Mercedes is firmly in control of the 2026 title fight. But no driver is working harder for his team than Max Verstappen, and he still might not get Red Bull over the line.
Three Numbers Paint a Picture
Ask who's winning Formula 1 this year and your answer will likely be Mercedes and Kimi Antonelli. However, if you ask who's working the hardest you might just get a different answer, one that also tells you which title fight is still alive.
To find it, we looked at three numbers: Total Driver Points, Team Points, and a simple measure we call the Driver Ratio, or the percentage share of a driver's team points each driver has scored.
The Drivers: Antonelli is Running Away with It
It was pretty clear last year that Kimi Antonelli was having a breakout year and destined for great things. And the results below for the 2026 season don't disappoint for all you Kimi fans; he's ahead by a significant margin. Here, you can see who's still in the running and who is already eliminated. The herd is being culled with each passing race.
Antonelli has 340 points and 8 wins from 17 races, 102 points clear of teammate George Russell. With a maximum of 150 points left for any driver, the title isn't mathematically decided. But Russell, Hamilton, Verstappen, Leclerc and Norris all need Antonelli to stumble, and repeatedly.
The Teams: Four Still Alive with One in Control
From a team perspective, the field has narrowed to only four teams: Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull Racing. The Constructors' Championship is closer than the drivers' fight, but not by much. Mercedes leads with 578 points, 134 ahead of Ferrari. You can see below that as of 10/23/26 Mercedes is well-poised for a championship victory this year, save for any major stumbles by Antonelli and Russell.
A team can score at most 43 points per race (a 1-2 finish), so 258 points are still on the table. That leaves four teams mathematically alive:
- Ferrari (444) can reach 702
- McLaren (339) can reach 597
- Red Bull Racing (332) can reach 590, just 12 points above where Mercedes sits today
That margin is so thin that Red Bull needs to outscore Mercedes by at least 31 points in Austin just to stay in the fight. McLaren needs a 24-point swing.
So the team most likely to win is Mercedes.
The Driver Ratio: Verstappen is Carrying Red Bull
While the driver and team points are interesting, there's another story here that begins to imply balance across a team's drivers and in the face of imbalance which drivers are working harder to pull their team to the finish line. For Red Bull Racing, we see a similar theme to 2025: Verstappen is carrying the lionshare of the points for Red Bull Racing. Here, you can see that he's carrying roughly 67% of the driver points across the teams that are still alive this racing season.
In short, Verstappen has basically scored two of every three points Red Bull has earned this season, and he's won the last two races in Malaysia and Singapore. Teammate Isack Hadjar has contributed 29.2%, and the remaining 4.2% came from Liam Lawson before he moved to Racing Bulls.
Compare that with Ferrari, the most balanced partnership on the grid: Hamilton and Leclerc are split almost 52/48. Mercedes leads the title race and gets strong points from both cars. Perhaps, this balance between drivers is what's helping keep them in control and in contention.
And thus the paradox: the driver doing the most for his team is on the contender least likely to win. Verstappen can keep winning races (he had a late-season run last year), but it'll be difficult for one driver to close a 246-point gap alone.
What to Watch in Austin
The last few races are where things get interesting in F1. The field narrows and every point begins to make the difference. But, here are our calls for what to watch in this weekend's race:
- Red Bull: outscore Mercedes by 31+ points or be eliminated
- McLaren: needs a 24-point swing to stay alive
- Mercedes: every point it scores pushes the chasers closer to elimination
- Ferrari: needs a significant points haul and a Mercedes stumble to keep its hopes alive.
All of these four teams are fighting with the math favoring some, but definitely not others.
