Within the Numbers Series # 25
One Race and Two Very Different Goals
Formula 1 heads to Austin this weekend for the United States Grand Prix, with more than just another race victory on the line. Mercedes' Kimi Antonelli arrives at Circuit of the Americas with a chance to secure his first Drivers' Championship and become the youngest champion in Formula 1 history. However, he'll need more than just a strong performance of his own if he's going to celebrate the title in Texas.
There are several drivers who could delay Antonelli's championship celebrations, but perhaps none more likely than Max Verstappen. The Red Bull driver has won the last two Grands Prix and returns to a circuit where he's enjoyed plenty of success, having won four of the last five races held in Austin. While Antonelli looks well on his way to securing his first Drivers' Championship, Verstappen seems to be finding his form at just the right time to potentially postpone the celebrations.
This week's Drive Score analysis takes a closer look at Verstappen's recent momentum, his history at Circuit of the Americas, and whether the model expects his strong performances to continue. With Antonelli looking to wrap up the championship and Verstappen hoping to keep his winning streak alive, could Max be the one to delay Kimi's championship celebrations?
What Will It Take for Kimi to Clinch?
Antonelli heads into the United States Grand Prix with an opportunity to make history, but securing the Drivers' Championship this weekend won't be quite as simple as winning the race. Even if the Mercedes driver takes the victory in Austin, he'll still need a few other results to go his way before he can officially start celebrating.
For Antonelli to clinch the title, his teammate George Russell would need to finish ninth or lower, Lewis Hamilton fifth or lower, and Max Verstappen second or lower. That's quite a few things that need to fall into place, and while Antonelli looks well on his way to becoming Formula 1's next world champion, wrapping things up in Austin might be a different story.
Verstappen Is Picking Up the Pace
While Antonelli has been the standout driver for much of the 2026 season, Verstappen has been doing a pretty good job of reminding everyone what he's capable of. The Red Bull driver heads into Austin having won the last two Grands Prix, and his recent performances suggest that he's finding some of his best form of the season.
Looking at our Drive Score metric, Verstappen has averaged 57.7 over the last three races, compared to Antonelli's 30.3. That's a pretty significant difference between the two drivers, especially considering how consistently strong Antonelli has been throughout the year. While Kimi remains in control of the championship standings, in recent weeks Max has been the stronger performer according to Drive Score.
If Verstappen can carry that momentum into Austin, he could make it difficult for Antonelli to secure the race victory he'll need to clinch the championship this weekend.
A Familiar Late-Season Surge
Verstappen finding another level in the second half of a season isn't exactly something new. Looking at his average Drive Scores over the last three years, there's been a noticeable improvement in his performances later in the year, particularly in 2025 and 2026.
In 2025, Verstappen's average Drive Score jumped from 19.6 in the first half of the season to 41.2 in the second, more than doubling his average. We're seeing something similar in 2026, with his average climbing from 18.9 to 35.6. Interestingly, 2024 was the exception, as his average actually dropped from 35.8 to 29.7 between the two halves of the season.
So, while we can't exactly say Max saves his best for last every year, he's certainly made a habit of finishing strong recently. With another late-season improvement underway, his current winning streak might not be all that surprising, and the timing couldn't be much worse for Antonelli's hopes of celebrating in Austin.
Austin Has Been Good to Max
If Verstappen's recent form wasn't already enough of a reason to keep an eye on him this weekend, his history at Circuit of the Americas certainly doesn't hurt his chances. The Red Bull driver has won four of the last five United States Grands Prix held in Austin, taking victories in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2025. Even in 2024, when he didn't come away with the win, he still managed to finish third.
His success at the circuit is also reflected in his Drive Score performances. Since 2021, Verstappen has averaged a Drive Score of 52.8 at Circuit of the Americas, highlighted by an impressive score of 88 in 2023. While his scores have definitely varied from year to year, his performances in Austin have rarely disappointed.
With two consecutive victories heading into the weekend and a history of success in Austin, Verstappen has plenty working in his favour. Whether that translates into another race win remains to be seen, but if there's one driver Antonelli won't want to see at the front of the grid this weekend, it's Max.
What Does Drive Score Predict for Austin?
After looking at Verstappen's recent form and impressive history at Circuit of the Americas, it probably won't come as much of a surprise to see who's sitting at the top of this weekend's Drive Score predictions. The Red Bull driver leads the model with a predicted score of 42.6, followed by Charles Leclerc in second at 32.3 and Kimi Antonelli in third at 25.7.
While Antonelli remains comfortably in control of the Drivers' Championship, the model isn't quite as confident about his chances of wrapping things up in Austin. With limited experience at the circuit and a Drive Score of -1 from his only previous race there, Kimi doesn't have quite the same edge as Verstappen.
Of course, Formula 1 is never easy to predict, and there's no telling what might happen once the lights go out on Sunday. However, with Max leading the predictions and looking to make it three consecutive victories, the model seems to suggest that Kimi's championship celebrations might have to wait just a little longer.
Looking Ahead to Austin
Antonelli has an opportunity to make history this weekend and secure his first Drivers' Championship. While the title itself appears to be just a matter of time, the question is whether he can get the job done this weekend or if the celebrations will have to wait just a little bit longer.
Verstappen certainly isn't making things easy for Antonelli, but then again, when has Max ever been one to make things easy for anyone? Between his recent performances, impressive history in Austin, and this weekend's Drive Score predictions, the Red Bull driver has plenty going his way. However, Antonelli has proved all season that he's more than capable of delivering big when it matters most.
So, can Kimi overcome the odds and celebrate his first championship in Austin, or will Max find a way to delay the party?
